Three up, three down: James Cook, Jahan Dotson and more expected ADP movers

Publish date: 2024-06-12

Similar to any trading market with assets constantly in a state of flux, fantasy sports are about being proactive and identifying where a price is going rather than where it’s been. Sometimes putting yourself out there and going against the grain can get some undesired blow back and attention, but I’ve always lived by the mantra that you only take flak when you’re over the target. Here’s a six-pack of players I think are currently being mispriced in each direction with incoming volatility on the horizon. Remember, this isn’t necessarily what I think should happen, but what I think will happen as we approach kickoff.

Justin Fields, CHI, QB — UP

Fantasy football’s always been about finding those players who can break any slate and blow a head-to-head matchup wide open, especially when they go outside the first three rounds. Enter Fields, the third-year Chicago shot caller who is currently being drafted as the QB6 around pick 48, and I’m feeling fairly certain there’s a full round of closing-line value here. On any given Sunday, Fields will be among the legitimate favorites to finish inside the Top 5 fantasy QBs, with the ability to tap into boundless potential with growth in the passing game. Remember, within that remarkable stretch of five separate Top 5 finishes in a six-week span in 2022, Fields was the No. 1 quarterback two weeks in a row after dropping back-to-back 40-burgers. The Bears also brought in a cavalry of pass-catching talent out wide, in the slot, and in the backfield. Early reports from Bears camp are that Fields already looks like a different QB under center, earning oohs and aahs in the stands while connecting regularly with newly acquired D.J. Moore. If we see any sort of crispness in the pocket from Fields as the preseason begins, you can expect him and his 19.7 FAN PPG to jump up right next to fellow unicorn Lamar Jackson.

Anthony Richardson, IND, QB — UP

I won’t copy and paste the argument for Justin Fields but, in essence, it’s very similar and simply couldn’t be excluded. QB scoring in fantasy is consolidated by nature. Therefore, having the ability to score via the ground game, adding a second parallel stat line, has become a determinative aspect of winning. As soon as the public gets a whiff that Anthony Richardson’s starting Week 1, and just what he can offer beyond simply running the ball, his price is going to gap up (a trading term where price moves too fast to take advantage). My early expectation is his current ADP 105 teleports to the mid-80s right behind Deshaun Watson. Some summertime drafters were understandably reticent about spending a ninth-round pick on a relative unknown in Richardson, but even then I felt we could read the tea leaves. The Colts spent the draft capital to go get their guy. Then, right around Independence Day, owner Jim Irsay was quoted saying, “Anthony Richardson has to play to get better,” and we knew there was only one direction the rookie QB’s ADP would go.

James Cook, BUF, RB — UP

The Bills are back for vengeance among the favorites for another run at a Super Bowl championship. For the record, I think it’s fundamentally wrong having a running back of this caliber, on a team projected to be among the most prolific offenses in the game, outside the Top 30. Don’t forget, in 2022 James Cook had 5.7 Yards Per Attempt and a nearly 13% Explosive Rush rate. Then the Bills jettisoned 215 backfield touches when Devin Singletary left for Houston but Cook’s price still didn’t budge. Granted the Bills went out and signed Damien Harris, who I believe is a quality back who will see plenty of short yard/goal line touches. However, as vocal as I’ve been regarding Harris’ potential to score TDs, I also believe we’re seeing teams deploy more specialization. The best analogy for this is last year’s Detroit Lions, capitalizing on the versatility of D’Andre Swift between the 20s with Jamaal Williams punching it in from close. To expand on the Lions connection even further, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is going 50 picks before James Cook and I can’t explain why for the life of me. Once the exhibition games start and the type of usage we’re seeing in camp becomes clear, Cook could (and will) jump 20 picks to where he belongs — next to Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison.

Austin Ekeler, LAC, RB — DOWN

Whenever I have anything but perfect positivity for a first rounder, I know to prepare to duck. Ekeler is a helluva football player and a great guy to boot but that’s not the point here. I believe the 2022 production we got from the Chargers star ball carrier was a bug and not a feature. Injuries ripped Los Angeles’ starting 11 on offense to shreds. This left Ekeler essentially as the last man standing, putting up a ridiculous finish in PPR circles. However, I feel the team has done everything in its power to not repeat that kind of usage. Well, almost everything. I believe the Bolts will bring in a veteran RB to soak up some of the punishment between the tackles that L.A. has been vocal about trying to have Ekeler avoid. The introduction of Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, or Kareem Hunt would easily sink Ekeler’s ADP a full round in my opinion. Removing a percentage of those expected weekly targets with a healthy surrounding cast plus the loss of at least some touchdown equity has to impact projections. Personally, I think you’re going to wind up with something more resembling the player who was RB13 after three weeks last year, even with the benefit of PPR scoring (ducks).

Travis Etienne, JAX, RB — DOWN

Running back pricing sticks out as a bit of a historical outlier so far this draft season with most going at previously unforeseen discounts. That is not the case with Etienne, despite having only one Top 5 finish at the position last year and playing in all 17 games without recording more than three receptions in any of them. The Jaguars spent third-round draft capital on Auburn RB Tank Bigsby while adding D’Ernest Johnson to the running back room. Now early camp reports are glowing for Bigsby, and I think the consolidation we’ve seen in Etienne’s ADP around pick 38 as the RB13 is going to break downward, establishing a smaller gap between the two.

Jahan Dotson, WAS, WR — DOWN

This one’s tough for me because I like Dotson as a talent and fantasy player. However, the more I shake out my final rankings, the harder it is to envision the public passing on other second options, but ones without an enormous question mark at quarterback. For example, Gabe Davis and Jordan Addison are going a full round after Dotson and I think that will correct this month as the public files in. Remember, just because I think his price will drop doesn’t mean I won’t draft Dotson, but my issue is this: There are two Commanders WRs being drafted in the first seven rounds, yet their quarterback only has an ADP because of best ball leagues and deeper formats. Sam Howell’s 208 ADP is essentially off of standard boards and it makes me question if he can support one, let alone two fantasy pass-catchers.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @JohnLaghezza where I have a link pinned to my podcast with colleague Michael Salfino as well as inexpensive off-site ranks that also include this wonderful data on formatted cheat sheets with a free downloadable .CSV.

(Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)

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